As the NBA playoffs tip off and the quest for the Larry O'Brien Trophy kicks into high gear, here's a crash course on the fatal flaws that could spell doom for the league's top contenders.
Teams listed in order of their championship odds on theScore Bet.
Thunder: J-Dub's health
Finding any reason to doubt the defending champions feels like extreme nitpicking, but we've got to come up with something here.
Jalen Williams was OKC's second-best player last season; an All-NBAer and All-Defensive team selection who looked like the type of budding star capable of being a franchise player for many clubs. But Williams missed the first 20 games of the year while recovering from offseason wrist surgery and then dealt with a tricky hamstring injury that sidelined him for 10-plus games on two separate occasions. As a result, the 25-year-old hasn't looked (or shot it from deep) like himself for any extended stretch this season.
Spurs: Inexperience
San Antonio's youthfulness isn't as concerning as its inexperience. Led by 22-year-old phenom Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs would be the youngest team to win the title since the 1977 Trail Blazers, and they'd dethrone last year's Thunder as the second-youngest champions ever. But even that Oklahoma City team, which fell in the second round the previous year, had experienced the type of galvanizing playoff heartbreak that future champions usually have to endure.
Using the eight-man playoff rotations of past champions and the eight players San Antonio's expected to rely on most this spring, here's how the 2026 Spurs compare to the least experienced champs of the last 50 years.
| Champion | Playoff experience |
|---|---|
| 1977 Blazers | 45 games |
| 2026 Spurs* | 78 games |
| 1981 Celtics | 90 games |
| 2025 Thunder | 136 games |
| 1980 Lakers | 168 games |
| 2015 Warriors | 240 games |
Celtics: Tatum's rust
The Celtics already defied the odds by winning 56 games and claiming the East's No. 2 seed during what was supposed to be a gap year. But Jayson Tatum's early return from a devastating Achilles injury raised the stakes, and Boston now enters the playoffs as the Eastern Conference favorite.
Though the five-time All-NBAer averaged roughly 22 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists in 16 stunning regular-season contests, his efficiency was down across the board. That's no knock on Tatum, who deserves heaps of praise for even getting to his current level of play so swiftly. But the Celtics will need him at or near his best to truly compete for another title.
Is he up for that already?
Nuggets: Defense
Though a 12-game win streak had Denver riding out of the regular season on the highest of notes, Nuggets fans know that the club played uninspired ball for long stretches of the season, particularly on the defensive end.
The Nuggets ranked 21st in defensive efficiency, 1.6 points per 100 possessions worse than the league average. Only the 2001 Lakers (1.8 points worse than average) won a title with a lesser defense, and they're one of just two teams, along with the 1956 Warriors, to win a championship with a below-average D.
The glass-half-full retort is that when the frequently sidelined Aaron Gordon saw the court this season, the Nuggets posted the equivalent of a top-five defense. Denver's title hopes might hinge on the strength of Gordon's hamstrings.
Cavaliers: Wing depth
Turning Darius Garland into James Harden gave the Cavs more size in the backcourt, which should help during the postseason slog, but Cleveland still hasn't addressed its glaring lack of a starting-caliber small forward. A Big Four of Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen is great, but can you win a championship if your fifth guy (and theoretical starter at the three-spot) is Dean Wade, Jaylon Tyson, Sam Merrill, Keon Ellis, or Max Strus?
While all of those players have their strengths and general utility, it's not exactly a murderers' row. Assuming the Cavs get past Scottie Barnes' Raptors in Round 1, who's guarding Cade Cunningham, Jaylen Brown, or Tatum in the ensuing rounds?
Pistons: Shooting
The Pistons rode a tough defensive identity to 60 wins and the East's top seed, but elite two-way play is required to claim the Larry O'Brien Trophy.
Detroit boasts a top-10 offense, but there are red flags hiding beneath the surface. Among them, the Pistons ranked 17th in 3-point percentage and 29th in 3-point attempt rate (3PA per FGA). No champion since the 1983 76ers has ranked in the bottom four in 3-point attempt rate.
And we haven't even mentioned that Cunningham, Detroit's franchise star, only returned from a collapsed lung last week.
Knicks: One-way stars
Jalen Brunson is one of the toughest stars of his generation, pound-for-pound. And Karl-Anthony Towns is one of the most underrated, with his combination of skill and size remaining tremendously valuable. But New York's two best players and most important offensive talents are both defensive liabilities. Can any team survive four rounds of playoff basketball under those circumstances?
Constructing an elite regular-season defense around Brunson and Towns is one thing - and having OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, and Mitchell Robinson helps any time of year - but everything is magnified in the spring. Opponents will exploit and feast on weaknesses until there's nothing left to pick from the bone. Whether it's Atlanta, Boston, Detroit, or Cleveland in the Eastern Conference, the Thunder in the Finals, or any other postseason opponent for that matter, some team is going to target Brunson and Towns over and over and over again.
Rockets: Halfcourt offense
Kevin Durant's shot creation, ability to make tough shots, and three-level scoring was supposed to plug Houston's biggest hole, but Fred VanVleet's preseason knee injury derailed those plans. The Rockets spent the entire year without a true point guard, and head coach Ime Udoka's uninventive playbook didn't help. The result was a 19th-ranked halfcourt offense that produced the same number of points per play as the 57-loss Grizzlies.
No top-six seed in either conference was worse in the halfcourt than the Rockets, whose 15.7% turnover rate ranked 19th among the 20-team postseason field (ahead of only Portland). If it wasn't for a favorable first-round matchup against the depleted Lakers, that offense likely would've had the Rockets outside the top eight in title odds, with the Timberwolves or a healthy version of the Lakers taking their place.
How quickly does Durant's burner scandal return to the forefront if things go south for Houston?
Joseph Casciaro is theScore's lead NBA reporter.
