Our baseball writers share their observations and insights throughout this week's AL and NL wild-card rounds. Tap here to see the full playoff bracket and every team's path to the World Series.
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Cubs-Padres I Red Sox-Yankees I White Sox-Astros I Phillies-Braves
Padres' stars came to play
At this time last year, the San Diego Padres were clinging to life at Wrigley Field. While they made it to Game 3 of the 2025 NL wild-card series against the Chicago Cubs, the Friars scored just five runs in that series en route to a quick exit.
The Padres drew the Cubs again for this year's wild-card showdown, but this time they have home-field advantage. And San Diego didn't just flip the script in Game 1: they imposed its will on a Cubs team that had the majors' best offense in the regular season. Michael King, who threw just one inning in last year's series, silenced Chicago's bats with seven innings of beautiful one-hit baseball. Nico Hoerner's bad-hop grounder that Manny Machado couldn't handle was all that stood between King and potentially making history.
And yet, King's dominance wasn't the best news of the night for the home side. San Diego immediately put its foot on the gas when Fernando Tatis Jr. crushed a first-pitch leadoff homer to get the home crowd rocking; two batters later, Machado went deep, and the rout was on in what ended as the largest shutout win in Padres' playoff history.
San Diego's received great contributions all year from glue guys like Ty France and Samad Taylor, both of whom were in the lineup Tuesday. But this team runs on its high-priced offensive stars, and will go nowhere if Tatis, Machado, Jackson Merrill, and Xander Bogaerts fall silent. That foursome stepped up big time, accounting for most of the damage in Game 1 by combining for eight of the Padres' 13 hits. Tatis and Machado also lend a special kind of swagger to this team - especially at the fortress that is Petco Park - that makes the entire club all the more intimidating. With their stars now clearly alive and well, the Padres made it clear that they are not a team you want to face this October.
For the Cubs, who've been dealing with a litany of pitching injuries all season, the Game 1 result is particularly disastrous. Life comes at you fast in a best-of-three series, and the Cubs have now left themselves with zero room for error after playing a disjointed and sloppy game in all facets. A disappearing offense is the last thing this team needed given their litany of pitching issues. - Simon Sharkey-Gotlieb
Schlittler is the Red Sox daddy
The Red Sox should do whatever it takes to avoid Cam Schlittler next postseason, and beyond.
The Massachusetts native - and currently the biggest villain in the Boston-New York rivalry - showed in Game 1 why he's one of the most dominant starting pitchers in the majors, and the heavy favorite to win the AL Cy Young award.
Schlittler tossed 6 1/3 shutout innings Tuesday, allowing just two hits and a walk to go with 10 strikeouts. He got a ridiculous 24 whiffs while surrendering just two hard-hit balls (both groundouts). His 117 pitches were the most by a Yankees starter in a playoff game since 2012. In two postseason starts against the Red Sox, Schlittler's thrown 14 1/3 shutout innings while striking out 22.
The 25-year-old certainly enjoys adding fuel to the rivalry, and he's more than backed up his words on social media on the field.
Cam Schlittler ERA in six career starts v Boston: 0.47. 38 2/3 innings, 49 strikeouts.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) September 30, 2026
If the pitching performance wasn't encouraging enough, the Yankees - at least for one night - alleviated any concerns about what the offense can do without Aaron Judge. Ben Rice homered twice and drove in six runs to tie the Yankees' single-playoff game record, George Lombard Jr. collected three hits in his postseason debut, while Austin Wells finished with two hits and drove in a pair from the 9-hole. For all the money the Bronx Bombers spend, their Game 1 win was powered by homegrown talent.
Boston's biggest concern coming into this series was an offense that's been running on fumes. The Red Sox scored the fewest runs and had MLB's worst OPS in September. Those trends continued in Game 1, where they looked lifeless and completely overmatched. While some of that can be chalked up to facing Schlittler, the Red Sox did little once he left, and had one runner in scoring position all night.
A mediocre offense cost the Red Sox against New York in last year's wild-card series, and they're already quickly running out of time again. Roman Anthony's departure in Game 1 only adds to their issues as they try to save their season. - Brandon Wile
White Sox pitch perfect bullpen game
It certainly won't go down in history as the most exciting postseason game, but the White Sox don't care. Chicago prevailed in a Game 1 battle of the bullpens, as five pitchers combined to allow three runs, keep Yordan Alvarez quiet, and push the Astros to the brink.
In order to have a successful bullpen game, your opener simply has to get the job done. From a Houston standpoint, Game 1 of this series was a perfect example of how quickly these games can unravel when that doesn't happen. Opener AJ Blubaugh didn't make it out of the first inning; Blubaugh and Bryan King combined to allow three runs (two earned) before converting the game's first three outs. Houston needed to use six more arms, including star closer Josh Hader while down three, just to get to the finish line. It was a slog.
Meanwhile, White Sox opener Hagen Smith quickly set the tone with three shutout innings, allowing the rest of the bullpen group to settle in quickly. The biggest lift came from Grant Taylor, who threw a career-high 54 pitches while striking out five to secure the final seven outs of the win. Manager Will Venable's choice to send Taylor back out for the ninth inning after a difficult eighth shows just how much trust he has in his closer. It was impressive to see so many young arms dominate for the White Sox in the biggest moments of their careers.
Despite being the more experienced playoff team by a wide margin, Houston looked overmatched throughout this game. In addition to the underwhelming pitching performance, the team's 1-through-6 hitters combined to go 3-for-22 without an extra-base hit. - Brandon Wile
Riley shows playoffs are clean slate
Austin Riley had the worst year of his career in 2026. The Braves third baseman posted a .654 OPS across 159 games during the regular season, and entered Game 1 in a 8-for-46 (.174) rut with just four RBIs over his previous 13 games.
But the beauty of the postseason is it provides anyone with the chance to be a hero, and Riley took advantage of his opportunity. With one swing, he changed the entire narrative surrounding his 2026 season - and he did that, smoking the game-winning homer of Jhoan Duran to send Truist Park into a frenzy.
AUSTIN RILEY
— MLB (@MLB) September 29, 2026
GO-AHEAD THREE-RUN HOMER
ATLANTA IS GOING WILD 🤯 pic.twitter.com/XrPQnazvVO
Riley's stunning homer helped the Braves avoid spoiling the best playoff start of Chris Sale's decorated career, a result that would have been disastrous for the home side. Teams that win Game 1 of the best-of-three wild-card series under the current best-of-three format have advanced 88% of the time. Given Atlanta's lack of rotational depth behind Sale, Riley's swing couldn't have been any bigger. - Brandon Wile
Mattingly's aggressive decision was right call, even if it didn't work
The Phillies entered the wild-card series with some serious question marks surrounding their rotation. Jesús Luzardo only threw four pitches over the final three weeks of the season, and Zack Wheeler was forced to start Sunday just to get Philadelphia into the playoffs. Despite this, Luzardo was brilliant in Game 1, unexpectedly throwing five solid innings before departing a tie game.
Even though Luzardo did far more than interim manager Don Mattingly could have possibly imagined, bridging the innings between the lefty and star closer Jhoan Duran was never going to be easy. Rookie Alex McFarlane gave up the go-ahead run in the sixth, but the Phillies battled back, and after taking a 3-2 lead in the top of the seventh, Mattingly asked star closer Duran to try and get nine outs.
With the top of the Braves order coming up in the seventh, going to Duran that early was the correct decision. Even if Duran could only give the Phillies two innings, you want him pitching in the most high-leverage situation. Duran looked to be cruising too, securing five outs on 15 pitches before an infield single and hit-by-pitch in the eighth set the stage for Riley's game-winning home run.
Duran surrendered just two homers in 59 1/3 innings all season, and only one to a right-handed hitter. Knowing how important Game 1 is in a short series, and having the opportunity to steal a game in which Sale started, it makes sense why Mattingly was so eager to go to Duran early. Sometimes, the best move doesn't always work, but most managers would rather lose with their best on the mound. - Brandon Wile
Judge out, Crochet and Stanton in for wild-card series
The Yankees and Red Sox haven't even taken the field yet, and there's already plenty of drama surrounding this series.
New York didn't include Aaron Judge on the roster as he continues to rehab from a calf injury. As difficult a decision as it probably was for Aaron Boone, it was likely too risky if the three-time MVP couldn't run. If Judge played and then had to be removed from the roster due to injury, the Yankees would've lost him for a potential ALDS matchup as well. New York played well for most of the regular season without Judge, and it'll hope to extend its campaign long enough to get him back.
However, adding Giancarlo Stanton to the roster makes Judge's absence a little easier to swallow. The 36-year-old hasn't played since late April because of a calf injury, but he recently took live at-bats and was cleared to play. Stanton's inclusion is a massive boost for a Yankees team that lacks right-handed power. He's also been an elite postseason performer throughout his career - hitting 18 home runs with a .926 OPS in 48 games - and has historically crushed the Red Sox. Boone couldn't have both Judge and Stanton limited to pinch-hitting duties, so it made the most sense to pick the healthier option.
The Red Sox made their own shocking roster addition by including Garrett Crochet, who's also been sidelined since late April. The left-hander will serve in a relief role since he hasn't been stretched out. While it's hard to predict Crochet's effectiveness, he has the potential to be an elite bullpen weapon and could combat New York's left-handed sluggers Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. Part of Boston's decision to include Crochet likely comes from his experience pitching in relief, as he spent his first three MLB seasons as a reliever before converting to a starter. Don't be surprised if the Red Sox throw Crochet in a massive spot in this series. - Brandon Wile
The wild-card round should be excellent
MLB's playoff format could use a revamp - especially the seeding - but regardless of that, we should be treated to four very entertaining series.
Despite stumbling into the postseason, the Phillies have enough firepower to give the Braves a fight, and it won't be a shock if that series between division rivals gets a bit heated. Both teams know their championship windows are growing smaller. While the White Sox-Astros series features the two worst records among the playoff teams and will be started by openers, it also features Munetaka Murakami and Yordan Alvarez. This series really doesn't have a favorite. We're getting a glimpse of the twilight of Houston's AL dynasty, while the young team from Chicago hopes to take its first steps toward its own sustained run of success.
Yankees-Red Sox has grown a bit tame in recent years, but at its core it remains one of the best rivalries in sports. Meeting in the wild-card round for a second time in as many years should add some juice, as should the Game 1 pitching matchup. Cam Schlittler and Payton Tolle are both oozing confidence and personality and should immediately inject some life into the series. New York went 7-6 against Boston during the regular season, and it'll be great to see how the contrasting styles go head-to-head. In a rematch of last year's wild-card series, the Cubs and Padres will play once again in what could be the best matchup of the four. The two clubs finished first and second in runs scored after the All-Star break, and who doesn't want to see Fernando Tatis Jr. go toe-to-toe with Pete Crow-Armstrong? It's a shame this series is only a best-of-three. - Brandon Wile
Looking at odds ahead of the postseason
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Dodgers | +225 |
| Brewers | +500 |
| Yankees | +750 |
| Rays | +750 |
| Guardians | +1000 |
| Red Sox | +1200 |
| Braves | +1400 |
| Cubs | +1600 |
| Phillies | +1600 |
| Padres | +1800 |
| Astros | +2000 |
| White Sox | +3500 |
Surprise, surprise - the Dodgers are favored to win a third straight World Series with +225 odds (30.8% implied probability). Shohei Ohtani and Co. will wait for the winner of the Braves-Phillies series, while the Brewers, the second favorite to win it all, will face either the Padres or Cubs. A National League team winning the World Series is -180 (64.3%), thanks not only to the Dodgers' win probability but also because all six teams have a legitimate shot at becoming champs.
The Yankees and Rays are the top two options in the American League, but New York must beat the Red Sox in the wild-card round first before facing Tampa Bay in the divisional series. You could argue the 93-win Yankees have the toughest path to a World Series among the favorites, which is why their championship odds are longer than the Brewers'.
The Guardians may be the best value on the board at +1000. They'll face either the Astros or White Sox in the divisional series and have the easiest path among all playoff teams to a championship series berth. - Eric Patterson
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