DeBoer hire evidence of moved goalposts, Leafs GM names, more NHL hot topics

Combining his own perspective with what he's been hearing from those in and around the game, senior NHL writer John Matisz breaks down the hot topics across the hockey landscape.

DeBoer hire evidence of moved goalposts

Lindy Ruff, hired by Buffalo two years ago this month, is already the 12th-longest-tenured NHL head coach following two stunning late-season firings.

Let that sink in for a moment. A head coach is in the league's top third in shelf life despite being introduced by his club in April 2024. Crazy.

Within a week, and with fewer than 10 games left in the schedule, Bruce Cassidy was replaced by John Tortorella behind the bench in Vegas, and Patrick Roy was axed for Pete DeBoer on Long Island. Other 2026 changes include Rick Bowness taking over for Dean Evason in Columbus on Jan. 12, and D.J. Smith in for Jim Hiller in Los Angeles on an interim basis on March 1.

Sunday's Islanders shake-up reflects two things: the stratification of coaches in today's NHL, and the state of the Isles early in the Matthew Schaefer era.

"I couldn't believe my eyes during the first half of the year," DeBoer said Monday when asked for his initial impressions of the 18-year-old defenseman.

Schaefer, who may win the Calder Trophy by unanimous vote, has moved the Isles' goalposts. Right now, general manager Mathieu Darche is dying to make the playoffs (29.6% odds). Long term, Darche is tasked with not screwing up a golden opportunity to build a Schaefer-led Stanley Cup contender.

The coaching change relates to both timelines, but the future's weightier.

DeBoer, 57, is on his sixth NHL head coaching role after previous stints in Florida, New Jersey, San Jose, Vegas, and Dallas. He'll bring much-needed structure to the Isles, a club that forced goalie Ilya Sorokin to bail them out far too often during Roy's three-year tenure. New York ranked 30th in expected goals against and 31st in inner-slot shots against ahead of Monday's slate of games, according to Sportlogiq, yet it still has 89 points in 79 games.

Teams in the modern NHL need different coaches for different stages. You don't hire a first-time coach out of college to put a Cup contender over the top, and you don't hire DeBoer to help a rebuilding effort. DeBoer's a tactician who elevates a team's floor overnight - a classic win-mode choice by Darche.

Now Darche must get to work on insulating Schaefer with talent.

5 'data-centric' names for Leafs

The timing was impeccable last Tuesday afternoon.

In Toronto, Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment president and CEO Keith Pelley was telling reporters he wants to hire a "data-centric" person as the next GM of the Maple Leafs in the wake of Brad Treliving's firing.

Meanwhile, in Denver, 300 data-loving hockey people - including roughly 90 who work in analytics departments across the NHL - were attending a conference focused on statistical analysis and its evolving role in the sport.

"They have to be data-centric. They have to really understand data and the importance of data and where data is moving," Pelley said of Toronto's next GM, before adding the scope of his months-long search will be "wide open" and thus not limited strictly to executives with previous GM experience.

I was in Denver last week and asked a few analytics staffers for some insight.

Who within their peer group fits the description of being both a "data-centric" executive and somebody who appears capable of handling the bright lights of Toronto? Here are five names that came up in multiple conversations:

• Sunny Mehta, Panthers assistant GM
• Evan Gold, Bruins assistant GM
• Josh Flynn, Sabres assistant GM
• Tyler Dellow, Hurricanes assistant GM
• Jason Spezza, Penguins assistant GM

Mehta and Dellow, like Hurricanes GM Eric Tulsky, broke into the industry as sharp online analysts. Gold and Flynn come from more traditional hockey backgrounds but are known for their progressive approach. Spezza is a former NHLer (19 seasons, including three in Toronto) now working under Kyle Dubas, the former Leafs GM, who, ironically, would be a perfect candidate.

Kelley's undecided on structure. If he opts to hire a president of hockey operations above the GM, ex-Canucks GM Mike Gillis would be the ideal pick.

Old man Karlsson turns back clock

Erik Karlsson will be 36 on May 31. His contract, which carries an $11.5 million cap hit and expires in 2027, will be infinitely more desirable to other teams this coming offseason, as he's owed just $1.5 million in actual salary during the 2026-27 campaign thanks to the deal's front-loaded, bonus-laden structure.

Put another way, if Pittsburgh wasn't blowing preseason expectations out of the water, Karlsson would have been an excellent offseason trade chip.

Now? There's absolutely no way the Penguins ship him out in the summer.

Karlsson, who's played well all year, has been on fire over the past five weeks. The three-time Norris Trophy winner scored and added three assists in a 9-4 Pens win over the Panthers this past weekend and paces all defensemen in post-Olympics production with 29 points in 22 games. Keep in mind, both Sidney Crosby (injury) and Evgeni Malkin (suspension) recently missed time.

Karlsson is first on the Pens in ice time (23:40) while playing 3:23 a night on the power play and 1:55 on the penalty kill. His plus-22 five-on-five goal differential leads all Pittsburgh skaters and ranks 13th among NHL blue-liners.

Recapturing his Norris swagger, the smooth Swede is unmistakably active, assertive, and confident with and without the puck right now, and it's showing up in Sportlogiq data. Karlsson sits fourth in the entire NHL in blocked passes (5.7 per game) and 11th in slot passes (2.5 per game).

Vegas regretting Andersson trade?

The Golden Knights are great for the NHL. The front office has been super aggressive in free agency and on the trade market since entering the league in 2017 and is, all in all, fully committed to doing whatever it takes to win.

Look no further than last week's unexpected coaching change.

But not all aggressive moves pan out. The January trade for 29-year-old Flames defenseman Rasmus Andersson, for instance, hasn't aged well.

Andersson, a pending unrestricted free agent, is a right-shot blue-liner with solid counting stats but meh underlying numbers. He's fine in the top four yet fails to move the needle in any appreciable way. Team context is key here: the aging Golden Knights need young, quick defensemen. Andersson is neither.

The main problem is what Vegas gave up to bring Andersson into the fold. The Flames received a 2027 first-round pick, a 2028 second-round pick (that becomes a first-rounder if Vegas wins the 2026 Cup), minor-league defenseman Abram Wiebe, and NHL right-shot defenseman Zach Whitecloud.

The Golden Knights would be better off with Whitecloud in the lineup. He's a slicker, more cost-effective player at a $2.75 million cap hit through 2027-28, and he has thrived in a larger role in Calgary. The coaching staff loves Whitecloud's leadership qualities and ability to munch significant minutes.

"Hey, listen, we knew we were getting a good player," Flames head coach Ryan Huska said last week. "But I think he's proven a lot of people wrong - that with more ice time, he can contribute more. He's been really good for us."

Young Raty bucking faceoff trend

One of the most predictable outcomes for an NHL center, regardless of talent level, is that he's going to struggle to win faceoffs for at least a few years. It's a phase that even centers who go on to dominate in the circle must endure.

Aatu Raty, 23, has become an exception to the rule.

The Canucks' fourth-line center is closing out his first full NHL season with a preposterous 61.8 faceoff win percentage. The Oulu, Finland, native ranks second in the league behind 38-year-old Senators pivot Claude Giroux.

The NHL started recording faceoff wins and losses in 1997-98. Raty's current FO% sits 19th all time among players who've taken 600 or more draws in a single season, and he's the youngest player in the top 50.

Raty, listed at 6-foot-2, 204 pounds, is strong enough to outmuscle some grizzled veterans. He puts in the work on the ice with consistent practice and off the ice through video study of opponents to sharpen technique and strategy.

Like many elite faceoff guys in 2026, the left-hander will flip his stick and alter his hand placements to take right-side draws as a righty (see above photo).

"It's all about who cheats the most," Raty told theScore last week.

"You're always trying to get an advantage. I try to talk to the linesmen, and there are some who tell me I have to change it up and can't do what I normally do. You have to have a couple of other tricks up your sleeve all the time - things that you do with your stick (to win a draw). It's really important to know which linesman you are in the circle with and what they call and don't call."

A second-round pick of the Islanders, Raty was part of the 2023 Bo Horvat trade. He's posted 27 points in 108 career games for the Isles and Canucks.

"I'm not going to score every game. I'm not going to get a point every game. So, you have to have other metrics that you're known for," Raty said.

"Faceoffs are 50-50 puck battles, and you're trying to win them for your team. A lot of scoring chances come from faceoffs. If you're in the defensive zone and don't win, you can get hemmed in. Faceoffs control a lot of the game."

Philly's Martone is new NCAA poster boy

"The best decision I ever made."

There's no better endorsement for college hockey than those six words from the Flyers' late-season addition, 19-year-old right winger Porter Martone.

Martone, the 2025 sixth overall pick, left the OHL's Brampton Steelheads for Michigan State University in his first post-draft season and the first in general in a revamped development pipeline. Recent eligibility rule changes now allow prospects to play both major junior and college hockey, and it's already clear that the NCAA is a viable stepping stone between junior and pro hockey.

Martone got the most out of his one-and-done season at Michigan State. More time in the weight room led to a changed physique - lower body fat percentage, extra muscle. Facing stiffer, older competition, he still put up 50 points in 35 games. And, of course, he pocketed Name, Image, and Likeness money.

The 6-foot-3, 214-pounder scored the winner in Philadelphia's 2-1 overtime victory over Boston on Sunday. That's three points in four NHL contests.

Are automated goal reviews coming?

Reader Isaac R. recently asked about goal-review technology.

Will the NHL ever utilize puck tracking technology so that goal reviews can occur without having to actually see the puck during video review?

This is a great, timely question. Major League Baseball rolled out its long-awaited Automated Ball-Strike challenge system a couple of weeks ago. Tennis is another sport leaning heavily on technology to make calls, having deployed electronic line-judging systems as early as 2017.

Here's what I know after checking in with a few people across the NHL, including an influential figure at the league office: The current technology in the hockey space isn't advanced enough to justify removing the human eye from the goal-review process. That said, the league is confident the tech will eventually meet a certain standard and be used for reviews. Don't be surprised if the NHL first runs an experiment in the AHL to work out kinks.

I think it's smart to adopt a conservative approach here. Using player and puck tracking for statistical analysis purposes is one thing, but relying on the tech to help determine goals and thus wins and losses is another thing entirely.

What do you want to know, hockey fans?

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