NBA offseason analysis: Breaking down the biggest moves

NBA offseason analysis: Breaking down the biggest moves

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Garrett Ellwood / NBA / Getty Images

The NBA offseason is upon us. Teams have already gotten a head start on executing blockbuster trades and negotiating with their own free agents. Here, you'll find our analysis of every notable deal.

As a reminder, most of these are still reports and won't be made official until the league's moratorium is lifted and its new year officially begins July 6.

LeBron leaving Lakers, will join new team

LeBron James' unprecedented career will continue, but his 24th NBA season won't be with the Los Angeles Lakers.

That's stunning, especially since the Lakers could've offered James more money than any other quasi-contender after he spent more consecutive time with the franchise (eight straight seasons) than with any other team.

Despite the fact James is no longer in his MVP-level prime, losing the 41-year-old for nothing on the free-agent market is still a blow to the Lakers. James averaged 20.9 points, 7.2 assists, 6.1 rebounds, and 1.8 stocks on 59.4% true shooting last season, excelling as a third option behind Luka Doncic and the recently re-signed Austin Reaves (see below). He also successfully quarterbacked the team's offense when Doncic and Reaves were sidelined late in the season and into the playoffs.

Los Angeles can recover from that blow if it uses its more than $50 million in cap space to build a more optimal roster around Doncic and Reaves. That starts with finding a long-term solution at center; preferably a big man who can act as a lob threat and vertical spacer on one end while protecting the rim on the other.

As for James, teams like the Warriors and the reigning West champion Spurs can offer him the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception worth about $15 million in Year 1. The Heat, who recently acquired Giannis Antetokounmpo, would have to move some salary before having access to the full non-taxpayer exception. James' hometown Cavaliers would be limited to either the taxpayer mid-level, worth around $6.1 million, or the veteran's minimum worth roughly $3.9 million if Cleveland once again exceeds the second apron. Should the league's all-time leading scorer wish to remain in L.A., the Clippers could open up enough space to offer more than the mid-level, but the Clippers are in a state of flux themselves given trade rumors swirling around Kawhi Leonard.

Trail Blazers re-sign Robert Williams (3 yrs, $44M)

Williams seems to have found a home in Portland over the last three years despite injuries limiting him to just 85 games played during that time. Williams is a solid rebounder and defensive big who can thrive in a reserve role if healthy, but a three-year contract approaching full mid-level money seems like an overpay.

Warriors extend Porzingis (2 yrs, $40M)

This is a great deal for Kristaps Porzingis, who reportedly secured a player option in the second season of a two-year, $40-million extension despite health issues taking their toll in recent years (and a lengthy injury history before that). If he's available, Porzingis should continue to give the Warriors a solid frontcourt scoring punch, a floor-spacing shooting threat, and a rim-protector on the other end. However, that's a big if.

For what it's worth, Porzingis' new deal does not mean Golden State is out on LeBron James and/or Anthony Davis.

Pistons re-sign Huerter (3 yrs, $27M)

Detroit is reportedly re-signing trade-deadline acquisition Kevin Huerter to a three-year contract worth $9 million per year. That would've been great value a couple years ago, when Huerter had earned a reputation as a shooter. However, he hasn't been the same since suffering a shoulder injury in March 2024. Huerter, 27, has averaged just 10 points per game and shot 32% from deep over the last two seasons. In addition, Detroit recently acquired a legitimate sharpshooter in Isaiah Joe, making this long-term commitment to Huerter a bit puzzling. The Pistons want to surround Cade Cunningham with as much shooting as possible, but spending more than $20 million per year on the combination of Joe and Huerter seems unnecessary.

Grizzlies trade Morant to Blazers

The Ja Morant era in Memphis is officially over, with the Grizzlies trading the two-time All-Star to Portland in exchange for Jerami Grant and Kris Murray.

It says something about Morant that the Grizzlies had to settle for such a paltry return after previously turning Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. into control of up to eight first-round draft picks. In fact, Memphis is lucky it didn't have to attach draft capital to Morant's contract to ship him out of town. That's how far the former face of the franchise has fallen.

It's not just that Morant was twice suspended for waving a gun around on social media or that folks around the league worry about his off-court behavior. It's that he's also a defensively liable, non-shooting point guard whose entire value is tied to his ability to get to the rim but who's shown concerning signs of athletic decline.

Between suspension and injuries, Morant has averaged just 39.4 games per season over the last five years, during which his at-rim frequency has declined from 43% of his shot attempts in 2021-22 to 30% last season. His drives per touch have declined roughly 19% over that same span. Some of those indicators did trend upward during an encouraging stretch in the middle of last season after Morant returned from a calf injury. But then ankle, calf, and elbow injuries sidelined him again.

Still, from the Blazers' perspective, there's not much to lose here. Grant is a solid two-way forward who can start or come off the bench, but he is 32 years old and owed more than $70 million over the next two years. Murray is a defensive-minded reserve wing. No draft capital is going out the door. Morant is unlikely to ever touch the heights he once seemed destined to reach, and he's owed about $88 million over the next two years, but this is as low-risk as it gets when it comes to taking a flier on a fading big-money star.

The cherry on top of this drawn-out saga for the Grizzlies would be eventually flipping Grant for a better return than Morant fetched.

Knicks re-sign Shamet (4 yrs, $24M)

Landry Shamet is a 39% 3-point shooter who played good two-way basketball off the Knicks' bench en route to New York's first NBA title since 1973. At an average of $6 million per year, the Knicks essentially retained him for the equivalent of the taxpayer mid-level exception.

In the bigger picture, this deal means that Mitchell Robinson is unlikely to return to the defending champions. Team owner James Dolan has vowed not to exceed the second apron, and the Knicks only have about $5 million left to use under that threshold. Meanwhile, Robinson is expected to command an average salary in the $15-million range.

Spurs re-sign Champagnie (3/$45M), Barnes (1/$8M)

Julian Champagnie emerged as a starting-caliber floor-spacing forward beside Victor Wembanyama last season, and the Spurs have rewarded him for it. San Antonio reportedly declined Champagnie's $3-million team option for 2026-27 to give the 25-year-old a new contract that runs through 2029 and carries an average salary of $15 million. That's mid-level money in this day and age - which is fair for a young starter who just shot better than 38% from deep on more than six 3-point attempts per game for the ascending West champions.

As for Harrison Barnes, the veteran small forward lost his starting spot late in the season and slowly fell out of the rotation during the playoffs, but his shooting and veteran savvy helped stabilize the young Spurs early in the season, including when Wembanyama was sidelined. An $8-million salary for a fringe rotation player sounds like a lot, but there's no long-term risk or cap-related cost associated with a one-year deal. Consider it a token of the Spurs' appreciation for what Barnes brings to the locker room.

Heat extend Wiggins (3 yrs, $64M)

Faced with a desperate need for shooting around their new Antetokounmpo-Adebayo-led frontcourt, the Heat's willingness to keep Andrew Wiggins around isn't surprising. The veteran forward is coming off a career-high 41.3% mark from deep last season and has canned at least 38% of his 3-pointers in five of the last six seasons. He's also a solid defender.

With Wiggins set to earn just $17 million per year in the second and third years of his new contract, this deal could prove to be a bargain for a cap-strapped Heat team. However, Wiggins' 2026-27 salary will remain at roughly $30.2 million, meaning the new pact doesn't have any cap-related benefits for Miami in the short term as it looks to build out a supporting cast around its star duo. The third year of the deal is a player option, so Wiggins scored a win there, too.

The Heat are hard-capped at the first apron and only have about $20 million to spread around five remaining roster spots. It feels increasingly unlikely that Miami will be able to retain 2026 All-Star Norman Powell.

Jazz re-sign Nurkic (2 yrs, $22M)

Jusuf Nurkic can still be a statistically productive big man, especially in what's expected to be a reserve role back in Utah, and he remains a solid rebounder and facilitator. However, a multi-year deal worth eight figures per year seems like a steep price to pay, even for a team with as much financial flexibility as the Jazz.

Suns pay steep price for Bridges

Who does Phoenix think Miles Bridges is? The Suns reportedly traded Grayson Allen, Royce O'Neale, and an unprotected 2033 first-round pick to the Hornets in exchange for Bridges, a 2029 first-rounder, and a 2029 second-rounder. The 2033 pick headed to Charlotte was Phoenix's only tradable first-rounder over the next seven years, whereas the 2029 first-rounder the Suns acquired is the least favorable selection belonging to Charlotte, Utah, Cleveland, or Minnesota.

The most positive spin Phoenix can put on this transaction is that the team dumped a couple of multi-year contracts in exchange for an expiring one, but with only two years remaining on both Allen's and O'Neale's contracts, it's not like either was an albatross. There's no world in which this deal was worth an unprotected first-rounder, especially for an organization that was already so asset-starved.

Whether Bridges will even be helpful for the Suns is up for debate. He's averaged nearly 20 (19.6) points per game over the last four years, but he's a 33% 3-point shooter, a poor decision-maker, and average at best on the defensive end. There are a lot of empty calories in his game.

Charlotte did well to add yet another valuable future first-round pick to its bounty of draft capital (11 first-rounders over the next seven years), especially since Naz Reid's arrival in the LaMelo Ball trade made Bridges redundant. Meanwhile, Both Allen and O'Neale should factor into the Hornets' rotation. Allen is coming off a down year shooting the ball, but both players are dependable 3-and-D veterans - and they're owed roughly 18% of the cap combined over the next two years. Again, that's not egregious. And if Allen has a bounce-back season, he could decline his $19.4-million player option for 2027-28. This trade is a clear win for Charlotte.

Thunder extend Hartenstein (3 yrs, $75M)

The Thunder are putting in work to ensure their most important role players are retained. By reportedly extending Isaiah Hartenstein, Oklahoma City will trim more than $3 million off his original 2026-27 salary, decreasing their luxury-tax bill, while the big man secures an extra $46.5-million long term. Between Hartenstein's reworked deal and trades that sent out Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins, the Thunder have now slashed more than $160 million from their tax bill.

If OKC declines team options on Lu Dort and Kenrich Williams, the club will be under both aprons while still rostering Hartenstein, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso, Jaylin Williams, Cason Wallace, Jared McCain, Ajay Mitchell, Nikola Topic, Thomas Sorber, No. 12 overall pick Aday Mara, and No. 16 pick Bennett Stirtz. The Thunder might even be able to retain Dort on a cheaper deal and still duck the second apron.

Spreadsheets aside, Hartenstein remains a valuable player thanks to his offensive rebounding, elite screen-setting, solid defense, and playmaking vision. Between Hartenstein, Holmgren, Jaylin Williams, Mara, and Sorber, the Thunder could boast one of the league's deepest collections of bigs.

Knicks re-sign Alvarado (3 yrs, $14M)

Jose Alvarado's New York homecoming really couldn't have gone any better. Though the pesky guard didn't play a huge role off the bench, Alvarado was a regular reserve on the first Knicks title team in 53 years, then signed a long-term contract with his boyhood team. Whether Alvarado's first-year salary ends up slightly cheaper than his $4.5-million player option would've been remains to be seen, but he's essentially making similar money for more years, which is a win for him.

The big question in New York is whether the defending champs can retain bigger pieces of their championship bench in Mitchell Robinson and Landry Shamet. Unless the Knicks can shed some salary, the team has less than $12 million to use under the second apron, which owner James Dolan is treating like a hard cap.

Pistons add Joe's shooting, OKC cuts costs

The Pistons have begun to address the need for more shooting around Cade Cunningham, with Detroit reportedly set to acquire Isaiah Joe from Oklahoma City in exchange for two second-round picks (in 2030 and 2031).

Joe is as clear a 3-point specialist as they come. Though he can handle the ball, his role and value are entirely tied to his shooting ability. The 26-year-old has shot better than 40% from deep in each of the last four seasons, during which time more than 77% of his field-goal attempts came from behind the arc. He's also coming off a career year in which he averaged 11.1 points and shot 42.3% from deep on six attempts per game.

Cunningham needs more space to operate, and Joe's off-ball gravity will help provide it. However, Joe's defensive issues have made it tougher for him to stay on the floor in the postseason than in the regular season, so this might not move the needle for Detroit at the most important time of the year.

Meanwhile, the asset-rich Thunder added a couple more second-rounders to their impressive haul while shaving Joe's $11.3-million salary from their crowded books and equally crowded roster. Between this deal and OKC's earlier trade of Aaron Wiggins to Atlanta - also for a pair of second-rounders - the Thunder dumped more than $20 million of salary and slashed their luxury-tax bill by a whopping $140 million. It's quite possible No. 16 overall pick Bennett Stirtz can replace Joe's production at less than half the price.

Suns re-sign Williams (3 yrs, $39M)

After three injury-riddled years in Charlotte and a failed trade to the Lakers, Mark Williams found a home in Phoenix. The big man played a career-high 60 games for the surprising Suns and emerged as a full-time starter for the feisty squad. Williams is a productive center who can finish inside and clean the glass; an average salary of $13 million for such a player is fair.

However, he missed most of the last two months (including the playoffs) due to a foot injury. Even on a relatively cheap deal worth about 7% of the cap, there's still risk here. The Suns have now committed to a big man who's averaged just 41.5 games per year, and Phoenix is set to pay the luxury tax and exceed the first apron for a 45-win 8-seed. New contracts for Jordan Goodwin and especially for Collin Gillespie are great for Phoenix (see below), but there's no denying the Suns are expensive for how mediocre they are.

Then again, at least the Suns are trying. What else is Phoenix to do with Devin Booker still in his prime and without control of its own first-round pick until 2032?

Lakers re-sign Reaves (4 yrs, $184.8M)

The Lakers didn't give Austin Reaves a fifth year, but they did give him the maximum amount allowable on a four-year deal. That's a bit surprising considering how few (if any) teams were going to have full max cap space entering free agency, but it's far from egregious.

It's true that Reaves is a zero-time All-Star and a defensive liability who struggled in the playoffs, but he has in-demand skills. He's an uber-efficient 20-point scorer who can create for himself, score from all three levels, and draw fouls at an elite rate. In addition, Reaves' ability to thrive on or off the ball makes him an easy fit beside a superior star like Luka Doncic.

The 28-year-old's combination of scoring, playmaking, and efficiency puts him in an exclusive group with some of the league's best offensive players. Since Reaves entered the Association in 2021, he's one of just 10 qualified shooters to post multiple seasons of 20-plus points and five-plus assists on an effective field-goal percentage of at least 55%. The other nine players are Doncic, Steph Curry, Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, Jamal Murray, and Tyrese Haliburton.

Timberwolves bet big on LaMelo

The Timberwolves are gambling on LaMelo Ball's sheer talent. The Hornets are betting Ball's value has already peaked. Check out our trade grades here.

Wolves re-sign Dosunmu (5 yrs, $112M)

Most observers projected Ayo Dosunmu for a new salary approaching $20 million. In the end, the reserve guard secured an average annual value of $22.4 million while extracting the longest possible term from Minnesota.

Between losing Donte DiVincenzo to an Achilles injury and carving out additional cap space by trading Julius Randle (before acquiring Ball), the Timberwolves clearly felt retaining Dosunmu was a top priority. It's hard to blame them.

Dosunmu is an efficient scorer who can start for Minnesota or continue to be one of the league's best reserves. Among 125 high-usage players who logged at least 1,000 minutes last season, Dosunmu ranked fifth in points per shot attempt, per Cleaning the Glass. At 26, he's also young enough to be part of what Minnesota hopes will be a contending core for years to come.

Dosunmu averaged roughly 15 points on 52-44-88 shooting during the regular season, then dropped 43 points (on 77% shooting) in Game 4 of the Timberwolves' first-round series victory over the Nuggets. In addition to shooting the lights out, Dosunmu can get downhill, put pressure on the defense, and make plays for others, though he's got one shooting-related quirk: He's a career 38% 3-point shooter who has topped 40% twice in five years, but he's yet to shoot better than 33% from deep in consecutive seasons. That's probably nothing, but it's worth monitoring.

Hornets re-sign White (3 yrs, $74M)

No one should expect White to have a Ball-sized impact on Charlotte's offense, and there are certainly risks to slotting in the one-way guard as a full-time starter. But for less than 15% of the cap for the next three years, the Hornets secured a solid-scoring combo guard who averaged roughly 16 points on 61% true shooting after his trade-deadline arrival.

If you really want to have fun with a small sample size, consider that in 37 minutes where White shared the floor with Kon Knueppel and Brandon Miller - but without Ball - the Hornets scored a whopping 134.2 points per 100 possessions. Now if they can just extrapolate 37 minutes to 82 games.

Heat overpay to win Giannis sweepstakes

For a deeper dive into the biggest move of the offseason, check out our Giannis Antetokounmpo trade grades for the Heat and Bucks here.

Wolves dump Randle to clear space

The Timberwolves traded Julius Randle and the 28th pick (Joshua Jefferson) to Brooklyn in exchange for Mo Gueye (who's expected to be waived) and the 33rd pick (Isaiah Evans). In a vacuum, that's a massive talent downgrade for a contending team under pressure to win soon. However, this was more about Minnesota reallocating its resources than it was about penny-pinching.

By moving off of Randle - who was owed more than $68 million over the next two years - and trading out of the draft's first round, the Timberwolves shaved more than $36 million off their 2026-27 payroll. Then they agreed to a new deal with Dosunmu and made a blockbuster splash for Ball. Though the Wolves will still be an expensive, tax-constrained squad, they did get more cost certainty now that Randle's 2027-28 player option ($35.8 million) is off the books.

Randle is akin to a regular-season innings eater in baseball. He's a productive player who's always in the lineup, and he helped Minnesota win a lot of games last season when Anthony Edwards was sidelined. But he's the prototype for the kind of player teams can't afford to overpay in a post-aprons world. Randle is a high-usage, somewhat one-dimensional player who is prone to bouts of bad decision-making. He's good enough to feel that he needs the ball but not good enough to justify a 27% usage rate on a contending team. And while he's not always efficient on the ball, he doesn't provide much offensive value off of it. His defensive effort also comes and goes.

It's tough to win with a player like that, but many of those same descriptors can be used for Ball.

Anyway, do you know who does need a productive fringe star and regular-season innings eater? A 62-loss Nets team that still lacks any surefire building blocks, missed out on a top-five pick, and doesn't control its own first-rounder next season (and therefore has no incentive to tank). Acquiring Randle and taking on an extra first-round pick to do so was a no-brainer for Brooklyn, especially since the Nets weren't expected to land any top free agents anyway. Having said that, it will be interesting to see how Randle handles a young locker room and what's likely to be a frustrating season for his new team.

Bulls land Claxton in Randle deal

The Bulls absorbed Nic Claxton into their cap space as part of the three-team Randle trade, taking a flier on the longtime Nets center. Claxton lost some of his shine in recent years and has battled back issues, so it's unclear how much upside the 27-year-old has left. But it's a worthwhile, no-risk bet by the rebuilding Bulls. Claxton is set to earn 12%-14% of the salary cap in each of the next two seasons, Chicago didn't have to give anyone up to acquire him, and the Bulls still have plenty of financial flexibility.

Wizards re-sign Young (4 yrs, $212.9M)

After buying low on Trae Young in a January trade, the Wizards gave the four-time All-Star what can only be described as one of the league's worst contracts. Consider what was written above about how hard it is to win in the modern NBA with a player like Randle, and then consider how negligent it was for the Wizards to pretend Young is a max player.

Read more about how Washington grossly overpaid Young here.

Pistons ship Stewart to Grizzlies

Much like the Wolves trading Randle, the Pistons salary-dumping Isaiah Stewart is likely a precursor to something bigger. Detroit can open up roughly $20 million-$30 million in cap space while retaining restricted free agent Jalen Duren. The 60-win Pistons could add a dynamic scorer like Norman Powell. They might be able to rival the Lakers' offer to LeBron James (though James being willing to spend the end of his career in Detroit seems like wishful thinking). They could even chase a trade for a veteran superstar like Kawhi Leonard.

Of course, if the Pistons somehow strike out on making meaningful improvements this summer, fans won't take kindly to dumping a valuable reserve big man for nothing. Detroit essentially traded Stewart to move up four spots in the draft.

In that case, Detroit's loss would be Memphis' gain. Stewart is a bruising big man and an excellent defender (with a sometimes frightening temper) who will make the Grizzlies tougher to play against. A frontcourt featuring Stewart, Zach Edey, No. 3 overall pick Cam Boozer, and No. 21 pick Karim Lopez will be a nightmare for opposing teams to match up with physically.

At 25 years old, Stewart can also grow with the young Grizzlies. The big man is owed just $15 million per year - mid-level money - over the next two years, with a team option in 2027-28. Stewart finished seventh in Sixth Man of the Year voting last season and boasted the league's stingiest defensive field-goal percentage at the rim.

Suns re-sign Gillespie (4/$48M), Goodwin (3/$19M)

Collin Gillespie went from theScore's All-Nobody Team to a $48-million contract, and honestly, that figure should prove to be team-friendly for the Suns. Gillespie proved his worth as a starter last season, averaging roughly 13 points, five assists, and four rebounds while shooting 40% from deep on high volume. He's a tough guard who can shoot, he's a good decision-maker with the ball in his hands, and he'll give you at least an honest effort on the defensive end.

Gillespie is the type of player coaches will tell you "just makes winning plays." A lot of teams would've jumped at the opportunity to acquire him at this price.

As for Jordan Goodwin, the journeyman guard seems to have found a home in Phoenix. He's a solid defender off the bench and an improved shooter. An average salary around $6.3 million is more than fair.

Warriors re-sign Horford (2 years, $14M)

That the Warriors wanted to bring Al Horford back isn't surprising. That they reportedly gave him a two-year deal that will take him through his 21st NBA season is. In any event, while Horford has certainly lost a step over the years, he's still a smart player, a solid defender, and a floor-spacing big man who shot 36% from deep last season while taking 63% of his attempts from behind the arc. This deal does raise the question of whether Golden State will retain free-agent big man Kristaps Porzingis.

Hawks extend McCollum (1 year, $21M)

On the surface, $21 million seems steep for a 34-year-old one-way guard whose efficiency has waned. But a one-year deal is relatively low-risk for Atlanta, and CJ McCollum made a legitimate impact after being dealt to the Hawks in the Trae Young deal. He's still a capable ball-handler and a career 40% 3-point shooter (37.5% last season), and he even helped Atlanta take a couple playoff games off the eventual champion Knicks. For what it's worth, the Hawks went 19-4 with McCollum as a full-time starter from Feb. 22 through the end of the season.

Knicks re-sign Diawara (4 years, $10M+)

The exact terms of the reported agreement between New York and Mohamed Diawara aren't yet clear, but cap experts expect a four-year pact with a starting salary around $2.2 million. That's a great bargain for the cap-constrained defending champs.

Diawara showed great promise as a regular rotation player over the last couple months of the regular season. The rookie provided a consistent jolt of energy off the bench, showing off some intriguing defensive potential while canning nearly 37% of his 3-point attempts.

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