theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks ahead of Saturday's UFC 330 at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia.
Welterweight title bout
Islam Makhachev (28-1)
vs.
Ian Machado Garry (17-1)
Islam Makhachev, the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in MMA, has the toughest test of his career in front of him - but he'll pass it nonetheless.
Makhachev is defending the welterweight title for the first time against Ian Machado Garry, the No. 2-ranked contender who's looking to become Ireland's first UFC champion since Conor McGregor.
More often than not, when Makhachev steps into the Octagon, it's a foregone conclusion that he'll walk away with his hand raised. He's a big favorite versus Garry, but this one feels a little different. Garry, who towered over Makhachev in their faceoffs this week, is a master at dictating range on the feet, and that will almost surely come in handy here. He's also a submission specialist, which could help neutralize Makhachev's wrestling. Simply put, it's hard to look good against him.
Unfortunately for Garry, Makhachev is no ordinary fighter. Like Khabib Nurmagomedov before him, Makhachev is really, really good. He moved up in weight last year and dominated Jack Della Maddalena with ease. I believe his 170-pound title reign is just getting started.
I might not be as confident as usual, but I think Makhachev will ultimately show that he's on a different level than the rest of the division.
The pick: Makhachev, third-round submission
Strawweight title bout
Mackenzie Dern (16-5)
vs.
Gillian Robertson (17-8)
This should be a very competitive title fight.
Mackenzie Dern finally captured the strawweight championship at UFC 321 last year, but she's still trying to cement herself as the top 115-pound fighter in the world. Unfortunately for Dern, until she gets a crack at Zhang Weili, it'll be tough to escape the shadow of the former champ, who's seemingly on a break after challenging Valentina Shevchenko for the women's flyweight title in 2025.
A win over Gillian Robertson will help, though. Robertson is riding a five-fight winning streak and is 7-1 in her last eight Octagon appearances dating back to 2022. The 31-year-old Niagara Falls, Ontario, native used to be a middling strawweight, but she leveled up her game and has since emerged as one of the best in the world.
Both Dern and Robertson are known for their grappling. Dern is one of the world's best jiu-jitsu practitioners, while Robertson has the most submission wins in UFC women's history (seven). Often when two grapplers meet in the cage, it turns into a kickboxing match. If that happens here, I feel comfortable picking Dern to get the better of Robertson on the feet (and on the ground).
The pick: Dern, unanimous decision
Lightweight bout
Jalin Turner (15-9)
vs.
Kaue Fernandes (11-2)
At his best, Jalin Turner is one of the top lightweights in the world. I'm expecting him to put on a show against Kaue Fernandes, who hasn't fought anyone near Turner's caliber.
The pick: Turner, first-round knockout
Middleweight bout
Mansur Abdul-Malik (9-1-1)
vs.
Dustin Stoltzfus (16-8)
Mansur Abdul-Malik is one of the biggest favorites on the card for a reason. The 28-year-old is a talented prospect with a lot of knockout power, and that'll be enough to beat Dustin Stoltzfus, who's lost three of his last four fights.
The pick: Abdul-Malik, first-round knockout
Lightweight bout
Edson Barboza (24-14)
vs.
Esteban Ribovics (15-3)
Edson Barboza said earlier this week that this could be his final fight, and it would be great to see the veteran lightweight - whose devastating knockout of Terry Etim will live on forever - go out with a bang. But that's not usually what happens in this sport.
Esteban Ribovics isn't a world-beater, but he can beat a lot of the UFC's middle-of-the-road lightweights, and that's exactly what Barboza is at this stage of his career. Ribovics' output will be too much for Barboza to handle in what will either result in a late finish or clear-cut decision victory.
The pick: Ribovics, third-round TKO
Rapid-fire bets
Best overall bet: Jalin Turner (-125) def. Kaue Fernandes
Turner will show he's on a different level than Fernandes. This price feels a bit cheap for "The Tarantula."
Best underdog bet: Vicente Luque (-105) def. Tresean Gore
Luque is far from his prime, but he's still good enough to beat Gore, who's 3-4 in the UFC and 6-4 as a professional.
Best prop bet: Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dustin Stoltzfus under 1.5 rounds (+120)
Abdul-Malik is no stranger to early finishes, scoring seven of his nine pro wins in the first round. I expect him to add another one against Stoltzfus.
