theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks ahead of Sunday's UFC Freedom 250 event at the White House in Washington.
Lightweight championship
Ilia Topuria (17-0)
vs.
Justin Gaethje (27-5)
Lightweight champion Ilia Topuria and interim champ Justin Gaethje will be the last two fighters to walk from the Oval Office to the South Lawn and step into the Octagon at the UFC's most unprecedented event to date.
Topuria, one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in MMA, is returning from a year-long layoff to defend his 155-pound title for the first time against Gaethje, a mainstay in the division since 2017 and one of the most entertaining fighters we've ever seen.
Topuria is a huge betting favorite entering the fight and has promised another first-round knockout, which is exactly how he beat Charles Oliveira to capture the title at UFC 317 last June. Topuria isn't Mystic Mac, but I see no reason not to trust him.
The 29-year-old is younger, quicker, and has more knockout power than Gaethje. I'd love to call this a competitive matchup - and maybe Gaethje can make things interesting early on - but it feels like just a matter of time before Topuria lands something big and puts him away.
The pick: Topuria, first-round knockout
Interim heavyweight championship
Alex Pereira (13-3)
vs.
Ciryl Gane (13-2, 1 NC)
This is the most compelling fight on the card. Alex Pereira, the former middleweight and light heavyweight champion, is moving up to heavyweight for the first time in his career to take on perennial contender Ciryl Gane for the interim title.
Pereira has a chance to enter uncharted territory in the UFC history books, as no one has ever won titles in three different divisions. Granted, this is just the interim belt, and until he beats Tom Aspinall, Francis Ngannou, or Jon Jones, there'd probably be an asterisk next to his status as a three-division champion. But it'd still be a massive achievement for the Connecticut-based fighter.
This fight could go either way, and it's hard to know how Pereira will look at heavyweight. He said he expects to weigh north of 250 pounds when he steps into the Octagon, which is a gigantic difference from his days at 185 and even 205 pounds. If the extra weight makes Pereira sluggish, Gane could have an advantage. But if he still moves well, has good cardio, and has more power than before, that could be a real problem for the man standing across from him.
Pereira will have to work for this one, but I'm siding with the 38-year-old Brazilian to land the cleaner shots and stay a bit busier throughout the five-round fight.
The pick: Pereira, unanimous decision
Bantamweight bout
Sean O'Malley (19-3, 1 NC)
vs.
Aiemann Zahabi (14-2)
Aiemann Zahabi is riding a seven-fight winning streak and hasn't lost since 2019, but Sean O'Malley is better than anyone he's faced. I'm expecting a competitive fight, but I think O'Malley will use his range to outstrike Zahabi and prove he's a cut above.
The pick: O'Malley, unanimous decision
Heavyweight bout
Josh Hokit (9-0)
vs.
Derrick Lewis (29-13, 1 NC)
Josh Hokit wants it more than Derrick Lewis. That's just a fact. The 28-year-old is on a path of destruction heading for the top of the heavyweight division, while Lewis, 41, is clinging onto his UFC career for dear life. Hokit holds all the advantages that come with youth and will have no problem bulldozing his way past "The Black Beast." Maybe it would've been a different story a few years ago, but I can't trust Lewis to beat someone like Hokit at this stage in his career.
The entire world is about to find out just how crazy - and legit - Hokit is.
The pick: Hokit, second-round TKO
Lightweight bout
Mauricio Ruffy (13-2)
vs.
Michael Chandler (23-10)
The UFC didn't give Michael Chandler an easy fight at the White House, that's for sure. Mauricio Ruffy is super dangerous on the feet, and Chandler is going to find that out the hard way.
The pick: Ruffy, second-round TKO
Middleweight bout
Bo Nickal (8-1)
vs.
Kyle Daukaus (17-4, 1 NC)
I don't think this is a complete gimme for Bo Nickal. Kyle Daukaus is on a hot streak, finishing Gerald Meerschaert and Michel Pereira each in under a minute to kick off his second stint with the UFC. He has some solid skills and should make it at least past the first round. But who are we kidding? This is still Nickal's fight to lose.
The pick: Nickal, second-round submission
Featherweight bout
Diego Lopes (27-8)
vs.
Steve Garcia (19-5)
This will be a fun fight to kick off the event. Diego Lopes badly needs a win after a second loss to featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski, and I think he'll beat Steve Garcia in a back-and-forth scrap. Garcia has looked great as of late, but Lopes is the better fighter.
The pick: Lopes, unanimous decision
Rapid-fire bets
Best overall bet: Josh Hokit / Mauricio Ruffy / Bo Nickal (-134)
There are a few big favorites on the card, so we're putting these three in a parlay to maximize value. I'd be surprised if any of them don't get their hand raised.
Best underdog bet: Steve Garcia (+130) def. Diego Lopes
I'm picking all the favorites to win at the White House, but if I had to choose the fighter with the best shot at an upset, it's Garcia. He's won seven in a row and could use that momentum to his advantage.
Best prop bet: Topuria-Gaethje under 1.5 rounds (-110)
Topuria likes to end his fights quickly, and I don't think Gaethje's chin will hold up.
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